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ANNOUNCEMENT: INTERCENSAL USAGE NOTES/NEWS
Source: APDU Newsletter
Volume 17, No. 1
January/February 1993
Director Announces No Adjustment ofIntercensal Estimates
Barbara Bryant, Director of the Bureau of the Census, announced on
December 29 that the intercensal population estimates produced annually
by the Bureau will not be adjusted to correct for the estimated 1.6%
national net undercount in the 1990 census. This was one of the last
acts of Bryant, who left her position on January 20,1993. Harry Scarr,
Deputy Director, is now the senior official at the Census Bureau.
"This decision was difficult to make," Bryant said in her notice
to the Federal Renter. "It is the consensus of a committee of senior
Census Bureau statisticians and demographers that adjustment would improve
the accuracy of the 1990 census count at the national level, particularly
for racial/ethnic and owner/renter groups. Adjustment would also more
accurately depict most states' shares of the national population. The
accuracy of the 1990 census is important to the intercensal adjustment issue
because the 1990 figure is the startmg point for our yearly population estimates.
However, because the 1990 total undercount is so small (less than 2 percent),
it is impossible to accurately adjust for the 44,055 substate areas for which
population estimates are produced."
Bryant noted that sponsors of federal surveys conducted by the Census
Bureau will be offered the option of calibrating their surveys to adjusted or
unadjusted population estimates beginnmg in 1993. These would be such surveys
as the Current Population Survey, the National Health Interview Survey, and
the National Crime Victimization Survey. These national surveys are
calibrated at large, aggregate levels where Census Bureau research shows
adjusted estimates are on average more accurate.
Bryant also pointed out that unadjusted estimates remain the official
population totals. Federal law requires that the Census Bureau issue official
totals for use in any federal program which allocates its funding based upon
population estimates. The Census Bureau provides official population
estimates to states and counties in every year between decenrialcensuses and
to subcounty areas every other year. Estimates of US population as of July 1,
1992, were released on January 1,1993.
* Reprinted with permission of the Association of Public Data Users (APDU)
For membership information contact:
Susan Anderson
(609) 258-6025 or
(609) 258-6052
ABSTRACT
Estimates of the Population of States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin:
1981 to 1989
These data are estimates of the population of the 50 States and
the District of Columbia by 5-year age groups (age 0 to 4, 5 to
9,... 85 and over) sex (male, female), and modified race (White;
Black; American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut; Asian and Pacific
Islander) and Hispanic Origin (Hispanic Origin, non-Hispanic
Origin) for each year, July 1, 1981 through July l, 1989. These
data are consistent with the following recently released
estimates: I) revised estimates of the population of counties by
age, sex, and race; 2) intercensal estimates of the population of
states by age and sex; and 3) intercensal estimates of the
population of the United States by age, sex, and race.
The estimates included in this release are developed by
interpolating the proportions of the population in specified
race/ethnic categories developed from special census files for
April 1, 1980 and 1990. The interpolated proportions are applied
to the appropriate annual state totals of revised estimates of
the population of counties by age, sex, and race. As a final
step, the interpolated estimates are adjusted to be consistent
with national intercensal estimates by specified race and
ethnicity and the state intercensal estimates by age and sex.
The age and race data in the 1980 and 1990 Census data files
which were used as anchor points in this methodology were
modified to be consistent with other data sets. The 1980 census
data were further modified to be consistent with the 1990
definition of counties and the race modification procedures
developed for 1990. The race classifications were modified in
the 1980 and 1990 census files. The 1980 and 1990 census data
included persons classified as "Other race". These
people were not included in one of the specified racial categories
listed on the census form. The existence of the "Other race"
category is inconsistent with race categories defined by the Office of
Management and Budget in OMB Directive 15. In order to serve the
needs of the user community, it was necessary to assign each of
these persons to a specified race.
The age statistics for 1990 were modified to correspond with the
April 1, 1990 census date. A review of the detailed 1990 census
information indicted that respondents tended to provide their age
as of the date of completion of the questionnaire, not their age
as of April I, 1990. `In add= tion, there may have been a tendency
for rospondents to round up their age if they were close to
having a birthday. The age data were modified to correspond to
the April 1, 1990 date.
The proportions by specified race developed from the special
census files for 1980 and 1990 were interpolated to each July 1
date, 1981 through 1989. The interpolated proportions in each
specified race/ethnic group were then applied to the appropriate
state totals derived from the revised set of estimates of the
population of counties by age, sex, and race; 1980 to 1989
(documentation enclosed). As a last step in the process, the
interpolated estimates were adjusted to be consistent with
revised intercensal estimates of the population of the nation by
age, sex, and race; and the intercensal estimates of the
population of states by age and sex.
Separate data are shown on this computer diskette for each of the
race/ethnic groups (White Hispanic, White non-Hispanic, Black
Hispanic, Black non-Hispanic, American Indian, Eskimo, Aleut
Hispanic, American Indian, Eskimo, Aleut non-Hispanic, Asian,
pacific Islander Hispanic, and Asian Pacific Islander non-
Hispanic). However, the limitations of our methodology are such
that we do not consider these data to be accurate for each
individual cell. We include the separate data for your convience
in aggregating to various groups. Although the data shown on
this diskette are unrounded, we do not consister these data to be
accurate to the last digit.
ATTACHMENT
Revised Estimates of the Population of Counties by Age, Sex, and Race:
1980 to 1989
These data are revised estimates of the Population of the 3,141
counties in the United States as defined in 1990, by 5-year age
groups (age 0 to 4, 5 to 9,,,,,,,85 and over), sex (male,
female), and modified race (White, Black, other races) for each
year, July 1, 1980 through July 1, 1989. These data differ from
the Preliminary estimates of the Population of counties by age,
sex, and race available earlier this year. These revised
estimates are for counties as defined in 1990. These estimates
are also consistent with actual intercensal estimates for the
Nation by age, sex, and race and the actual intercensal estimates
for states by age and sex to be released later this year.
The revised estimates included in this release are developed by
interpolating between special census files for April 1, 1980 and
1990. The interpolations were adjusted to be consistent with:
1) revised intercensal estimates of the population of the nation
by age, sex, and race; 2) intercensal estimates of the
population of states by age-and sex; and 3) intercensal estimates
of the total population of counties.
The age and race data in the 1980 and 1990 Census data files
which were used as anchor points in this methodology were
modified to be consistent with other data sets. The 1980 census
data were further modified to be consistent with the 1990
definition of counties and the race modification Procedures
developed for 1990. The race Classifications were modified in
the 1980 and 1990 census files. The 1980 and 1990 census data
included persons classified as "Other race". These people
were not included in one of the specified racial categories listed on
the census form. The existence of the "Other race" category
is inconsistent with race categories defined by the Office of
Management and Budget in OMB Directive 15. In order to serve the
needs of the user community, it was necessary to assign each of
these persons to a specified race.
The age statistics for 1990 were modified to correspond with the
April 1, 1990 census date. A review of the detailed 1990 census
information indicated that respondents tended to provide their age
as of the date of completion of the questionnaire, not their age
as of April 1, 1990. In addition, there may have been a tendency
for respondents to round up their age if they were close to
having a birthday. The age data were modified to correspond to
the April 1, 1990 date.
The interpo1ations between the 1980 and 1990 modified census data
were adjusted to be consistent with: 1) the intercensal estimates
of the population of the nation by age, sex, and race; 2) the
intercensal estimates of the population of states by age and sex;
and 3) the intercensal estimates of the total population of
counties. The intercensal estimates for the population of the
nation by age, sex, and race, each state by age and sex, and
total population of each county are consistent with both the 1980
and 1990 censuses as enumerated. The latest set of l980-based
(postcensal) estimates totals and by age, sex, and race were
applied to the intercensal formula described in appendix I. All
intercensal State estimates are adjusted to be consistent with
the independent national intercensal estimates of population.
All intercensal county estimates are adjusted to be consistent
with the corresponding state estimates.
RECORD LAYOUT
General Information
The data shown on this computer tape are unrounded. However, the
limitations of our methodology are such that we do not consider
these data to be accurate to the last digit.
Record Layout
Contents Columns
FIPS State Code 1-2
Year (Last digit, 1,2,...9) 3
Race/Hispanic Origin Code 4
1 White non-Hispanic
2= Black non-Hispanic
3 American Indian, Eskimo,
Aleut, non-Hispanic
4 Asian, Pacific Islander
non-Hispanic
5 White Hispanic
6 Black Hispanic
7 American Indian, Eskimo,
Aleut, Hispanic
8 Asian, Pacific Islander
Hispanic
Sex 5
1 male
2 female
Age
0-4 6-12
5-9 13-19
10-l4 20-26
15-19 27-33
20-24 34-40
25-29 41-47
30-34 48-54
35-39 55-61
40-44 62-68
45-49 69-75
50-54 76-82
55-59 83-89
60-64 90-96
65-69 97-103
70-74 104-110
75-79 111-117
80-84 118-124
85+ 125-131
