Scientific Data DocumentationIntercensal Population Estimates, Bureau of the Census, 1980-1989
Annoucement: January/February 1993 Abstract Methodology Record LayoutANNOUNCEMENT: INTERCENSAL USAGE NOTES/NEWS Source: APDU Newsletter Volume 17, No. 1 January/February 1993 Director Announces No Adjustment ofIntercensal Estimates Barbara Bryant, Director of the Bureau of the Census, announced on December 29 that the intercensal population estimates produced annually by the Bureau will not be adjusted to correct for the estimated 1.6% national net undercount in the 1990 census. This was one of the last acts of Bryant, who left her position on January 20,1993. Harry Scarr, Deputy Director, is now the senior official at the Census Bureau. "This decision was difficult to make," Bryant said in her notice to the Federal Renter. "It is the consensus of a committee of senior Census Bureau statisticians and demographers that adjustment would improve the accuracy of the 1990 census count at the national level, particularly for racial/ethnic and owner/renter groups. Adjustment would also more accurately depict most states' shares of the national population. The accuracy of the 1990 census is important to the intercensal adjustment issue because the 1990 figure is the startmg point for our yearly population estimates. However, because the 1990 total undercount is so small (less than 2 percent), it is impossible to accurately adjust for the 44,055 substate areas for which population estimates are produced." Bryant noted that sponsors of federal surveys conducted by the Census Bureau will be offered the option of calibrating their surveys to adjusted or unadjusted population estimates beginnmg in 1993. These would be such surveys as the Current Population Survey, the National Health Interview Survey, and the National Crime Victimization Survey. These national surveys are calibrated at large, aggregate levels where Census Bureau research shows adjusted estimates are on average more accurate. Bryant also pointed out that unadjusted estimates remain the official population totals. Federal law requires that the Census Bureau issue official totals for use in any federal program which allocates its funding based upon population estimates. The Census Bureau provides official population estimates to states and counties in every year between decenrialcensuses and to subcounty areas every other year. Estimates of US population as of July 1, 1992, were released on January 1,1993. * Reprinted with permission of the Association of Public Data Users (APDU) For membership information contact: Susan Anderson (609) 258-6025 or (609) 258-6052ABSTRACT Revised Estimates of the Population of Counties by Age, Sex, and Race: 1980 to 1989 These data are revised estimates of the Population of the 3,141 counties in the United States as defined in 1990, by 5-year age groups (age 0 to 4, 5 to 9,,,,,,,85 and over), sex (male, female), and modified race (White, Black, other races) for each year, July 1, 1980 through July 1, 1989. These data differ from the Preliminary estimates of the Population of counties by age, sex, and race available earlier this year. These revised estimates are for counties as defined in 1990. These estimates are also consistent with actual intercensal estimates for the Nation by age, sex, and race and the actual intercensal estimates for states by age and sex to be released later this year. The revised estimates included in this release are developed by interpolating between special census files for April 1, 1980 and 1990. The interpolations were adjusted to be consistent with: 1) revised intercensal estimates of the population of the nation by age, sex, and race; 2) intercensal estimates of the population of states by age-and sex; and 3) intercensal estimates of the total population of counties. The age and race data in the 1980 and 1990 Census data files which were used as anchor points in this methodology were modified to be consistent with other data sets. The 1980 census data were further modified to be consistent with the 1990 definition of counties and the race modification Procedures developed for 1990. The race Classifications were modified in the 1980 and 1990 census files. The 1980 and 1990 census data included persons classified as "Other race". These people were not included in one of the specified racial categories listed on the census form. The existence of the "Other race" category is inconsistent with race categories defined by the Office of Management and Budget in OMB Directive 15. In order to serve the needs of the user community, it was necessary to assign each of these persons to a specified race. The age statistics for 1990 were modified to correspond with the April 1, 1990 census date. A review of the detailed 1990 census information indicated that respondents tended to provide their age as of the date of completion of the questionnaire, not their age as of April 1, 1990. In addition, there may have been a tendency for respondents to round up their age if they were close to having a birthday. The age data were modified to correspond to the April 1, 1990 date. The interpo1ations between the 1980 and 1990 modified census data were adjusted to be consistent with: 1) the intercensal estimates of the population of the nation by age, sex, and race; 2) the intercensal estimates of the population of states by age and sex; and 3) the intercensal estimates of the total population of counties. The intercensal estimates for the population of the nation by age, sex, and race, each state by age and sex, and total population of each county are consistent with both the 1980 and 1990 censuses as enumerated. The latest set of l980-based (postcensal) estimates totals and by age, sex, and race were applied to the intercensal formula described in appendix I. All intercensal State estimates are adjusted to be consistent with the independent national intercensal estimates of population. All intercensal county estimates are adjusted to be consistent with the corresponding state estimates. The data shown on this computer tape are unrounded. However, the limitations of our methodology are such that we do not consider these data to be accurate to the last digit.METHODOLOGY METHOD FOR PRODUCING INTERCENSAL ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION OF STATES: 1981-1989 This appendix describes the methodology used to derive the intercensal estimates of the resident population of States, divisions, and regions for July 1, 1981 to 1989. The intercensals are consistent with the 1980 Census counts as published in the U.S. Census Summary, PC80-l-B1 and the 1990 census modified counts. The latest set of 1981-90 postcensal (1980-based) State estimates were used in the intercensal formula described below. The sum of the intercensal state estimates for each year was adjusted to be consistent with independent national estimates of tne intercensal population estimates. Algebraically, the intercensal procedure can be described as: t/10 P = Q (P / Q ) t t 10 10 The formula above is describeed in terms of the following notations: = time (years) elasped since April 1, 1980, 0 < t < 10 - - Q = postcensal estimaate at time t t P = intercensal estimate at time t t so that Q = P = actual census count as o o of April 1, 1980 P = actual census count 10 as of April 1, 1990 Q = postcensal estimate for 10 April 1, 1990 This procedure was also used in developing the annual intercensal population estimates for the United States.RECORD LAYOUT General Information This file contains revised estimates of the population of the 3,141 counties (1990 geography) in the United States by five-year age groups (ages 0-4, 5-9, .85 and over), sex (male, female) and modified race (white, black, other race) for each July I date 1980 through 1989. Record Layout Contents Columns Year (2 digits, 80.....89) 1-2 TIPS (State/County) 3-7 Race/Sex code (1 white male 8 2 white female 3 black male 4 black female 5 other male 6 other female) Blank 9 Age 0=4 10-17 5-9 18-25 10-14 26-33 15-19 34-41 20-24 42-49 25-29 50-57 30-34 58-65 35-39 66-73 40-44 74-81 45-49 82-89 50-54 90-97 55-59 98-105 60-64 106-113 65-69 114-121 70-74 122-129 75-79 130-137 80-84 138-145 85+ 146-153
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