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Scientific Data Documentation
Population Projections Of The States, 1988-2010
DSN: CC36.CENSUS.PROJ.AGESEX88 RECORD LAYOUT POSITION TYPE DESCRIPTION 1-4 Num Year (from 1986 to 2010) 6 Num Race (0 = total, 1 = white, 2 = black, 3 = other) 8-9 Alpha State (postal codes, `US' = total) 11 Num Sex (0 = total, 1 = male, 2 = female) 13-21 Num Total population for specified year, race, state, sex 23-30 Num Population aged 0 for specified subset 32-39 Num Population aged 1 for specified subset 41-48 Num Population aged 2 for specified subset 50-57 Num Population aged 3 for specified subset 59-66 Num Population aged 4 for specified subset 67-80 Num Filler 81-88 Num Population aged 5 for specified subset 90-97 Num Population aged 6 for specified subset 99-106 Num Population aged 7 for specified subset 108-115 Num Population aged 8 for specified subset 117-124 Num Population aged 9 for specified subset 126-133 Num Population aged 10 for specified subset 135-142 Num Population aged 11 for specified subset 144-151 Num Population aged 12 for specified subset 153-160 Num Population aged 13 for specified subset 161-168 Num Population aged 14 for specified subset 170-177 Num Population aged 15 for specified subset 179-186 Num Population aged 16 for specified subset 188-195 Num Population aged 17 for specified subset 197-204 Num Population aged 18 for specified subset 206-213 Num Population aged 19 for specified subset 215-222 Num Population aged 20 for specified subset 224-231 Num Population aged 21 for specified subset 233-240 Num Population aged 22 for specified subset 241-248 Num Population aged 23 for specified subset 250-257 Num Population aged 24 for specified subset 259-266 Num Population aged 25 for specified subset 268-275 Num Population aged 26 for specified subset 277-284 Num Population aged 27 for specified subset 286-293 Num Population aged 28 for specified subset 295-302 Num Population aged 29 for specified subset 304-311 Num Population aged 30 for specified subset 313-320 Num Population aged 31 for specified subset 321-328 Num Population aged 32 for specified subset 330-337 Num Population aged 33 for specified subset 339-346 Num Population aged 34 for specified subset 348-355 Num Population aged 35 for specified subset 357-364 Num Population aged 36 for specified subset 366-373 Num Population aged 37 for specified subset 375-382 Num Population aged 38 for specified subset 384-391 Num Population aged 39 for specified subset 393-400 Num Population aged 40 for specified subset 401-408 Num Population aged 41 for specified subset 410-417 Num Population aged 42 for specified subset 419-426 Num Population aged 43 for specified subset 428-435 Num Population aged 44 for specified subset 437-444 Num Population aged 45 for specified subset 446-453 Num Population aged 46 for specified subset 455-462 Num Population aged 47 for specified subset 464-471 Num Population aged 48 for specified subset 473-480 Num Population aged 49 for specified subset 481-488 Num Population aged 50 for specified subset 490-497 Num Population aged 51 for specified subset 499-506 Num Population aged 52 for specified subset 508-515 Num Population aged 53 for specified subset 517-524 Num Population aged 54 for specified subset 526-533 Num Population aged 55 for specified subset 535-542 Num Population aged 56 for specified subset 544-551 Num Population aged 57 for specified subset 553-560 Num Population aged 58 for specified subset 561-568 Num Population aged 59 for specified subset 570-577 Num Population aged 60 for specified subset 579-586 Num Population aged 61 for specified subset 588-595 Num Population aged 62 for specified subset 597-604 Num Population aged 63 for specified subset 606-613 Num Population aged 64 for specified subset 615-622 Num Population aged 65 for specified subset 624-631 Num Population aged 66 for specified subset 633-640 Num Population aged 67 for specified subset 641-648 Num Population aged 68 for specified subset 650-657 Num Population aged 69 for specified subset 659-666 Num Population aged 70 for specified subset 668-675 Num Population aged 71 for specified subset 677-684 Num Population aged 72 for specified subset 686-693 Num Population aged 73 for specified subset 695-702 Num Population aged 74 for specified subset 704-711 Num Population aged 75 for specified subset 713-720 Num Population aged 76 for specified subset 721-728 Num Population aged 77 for specified subset 730-737 Num Population aged 78 for specified subset 739-746 Num Population aged 79 for specified subset 748-755 Num Population aged 80 for specified subset 757-764 Num Population aged 81 for specified subset 766-773 Num Population aged 82 for specified subset 775-782 Num Population aged 83 for specified subset 784-791 Num Population aged 84 for specified subset 793-800 Num Population aged 85+ for specified subsetABSTRACT Projections of the Population of States, by Age, Sex and Race: 1988 to 2010 {machine-readable data file} /prepared by the Bureau of the Census. - Washington: The Bureau of the Census {producer and distributor}, 1989. Type of File: Summary statistics. Universe Description: The universe is the resident population of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Subject-Matter Description: This file contains annual projections of the resident population for the 50 states and the District of Columbia by single years of age (age 0 to 85 and over), sex (males and females), and race (white, black, and other races) for years 1986 through 2010. These projections utilize a mathematical projection model known as the cohort-component method. This method permits separate assumptions to be made for each of the components of population change: births, deaths, internal migration and international migration. The projections are consistent with the July 1,1986 population estimates for States. In general, these projections assume a slight increase in the national levels of fertility to an ultimate level of 1.8 births per woman. For mortality', these projections assume that the overall level of life expectancy increases from 75.0 in 1986 to 77.6 in 2005 and 81.2 in 2080. The projections assume a decreasing level of net international migration from an annual level of 600,000 through 1988 to 500,000 by 1998. Internal migration assumptions in these projections are based on the annual state-to-state migration data for the 1975-86 period.INTRODUCTION PROJECTIONS OF THE POPULATION OF STATES,BY AGE, SEX, AND RACE: 1988 TO 2010 This tape contains the Census Bureau's latest set of annual projections of the resident population for the 50 states and the District of Columbia by single years of age (age 0 to 85 and over), sex (males and females), and race (white, black, and other races) for years 1986 through 2010. A mathematical projection model known as the cohort-component method was utilized to produce these projections. This method permits separate assumptions to be made for each of the components of population change: births, deaths, internal migration, and international migration. These projections are consistent with the July 1,1986 population estimates for states. In general, these projections assume a slight increase in the national levels of fertility to an ultimate level of 1.8 births per woman and a continuation of the existing differentials in state age-specific birth rates. For mortality, these projections also assume that the existing patterns of state differentials in mortality remain unchanged while the overall level of life expectancy increases from 75.0 in 1986 to 77.6 in 2005 and 81.2 in 2080. A decreasing level of net international migration from an annual level of 600,000 through 1988 to 500,000 by 1998 is assumed. At the state level, internal migration is the most important and complex component of population changes. In general, it is also the component that shows the greatest degree of fluctuation. The present projections are the first to incorporate the annual state-to-state flows of migrants for the 1975 through 1986 period developed from annual administrative data. These data are used in combination with decennial census migration data as a basis for projecting future migration. Although certain parts of the historical period examined (1975 through 1986) may represent unique circumstances in many of the states, the past does, in general, provide a basis for projecting the future. Undoubtedly, this set of projections does not imply certainty about the future course of events. Small and often unforeseeable changes in economic, social, or demographic conditions in any state can and will cause future population changes to deviate from the projected trends. The difference between these projections and forecasts is that they present only the results of the mathematical projection model given explicitly stated assumptions. The resulting projections represent a consistent methodology and a consistent set of assumptions that add to the projected national resident population. With this type of approach, the projections of one State can easily be compared to the projections of another State. The assumptions concerning future levels of fertility, mortality, and international migration are consistent with the middle series of the national population projections published as Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1018. These projections are identical to the summary data included in the recent Census Bureau report, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1017.
