 |
 |
 |
|
   |
||||||||
|
|
|||||||
|
Scientific Data Documentation
Population Projections for States, 1993-2020
*SEE CENSUS PROJECTIONS 1993-2020 DATASET NAMES FOR DSN's ABSTRACT Population Projections for States by Age, Sex, Race,and Hispanic Origin: 1993 to 2020 This report includes an extensive analysis of the results of these projections as well as detailed information on the methodology and assumptions used to produce a preferred and three alternative proj- ection scenarios. To order this publication, contact the Statistical Information Staff at 301/763-5002. Questions concerning the methodology, analysis of the data, or file layout should be addressed to Paul Campbell, Population Projections Branch at 301/763-1902. DESCRIPTION The tape contains the detailed set of population projection results for every State. There are 50 States and the District of Columbia. The data tape consists of five files.There is one file for each of the 4 projection series (Series A, B, C, and D) and one file for the Hispanic origin population. For July 1 of each year, 1993 to 2020, separate files are presented for each of the four series of State projections classified by age, sex, and race. Only Series A are available for the Hispanic origin population. These projections are based on July 1, 1990, 1991, and 1992 State estimates, which are included. Projections are provided for males and females, 86 age categories (annually for individual ages 0 to 84, and 85 and over), four race categories (White; Black; American Indian; Eskimo, and Aleut; and Asian and Pacific Islander). The totals for the States can be obtained by combined the four race groups. Hispanic origin may be any race. Series A - Preferred Series Series B - Economic Model Series C - Floating Mean Model Series D - Zero Internal Migration Assumption Series H - Hispanic Origin RECORD LAYOUT Location Length Type Data -------- ------ ---- ---- 1 1 character Series; 'A', 'B', 'C', or 'D' 3-6 4 numeric Year; '1990' to '2020' 8-9 2 character State Post Office Abbreviation, AL-WY 11-12 2 numeric Age; '0' to '85' (85 includes 85+) 14-20 7 numeric White male population 22-28 7 numeric White female population 30-36 7 numeric Black male population 38-44 7 numeric Black female population 46-52 7 numeric American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut male population 54-60 7 numeric American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut female population 62-68 7 numeric Asian and Pacific Islander male population 70-76 7 numeric Asian and Pacific Islander female population Series H Record Layout Location Length Type Data -------- ------ ---- ---- 1 1 character identifier; 'H' 3-6 4 numeric Year; '1990' to '2020' 8-9 2 character State Post Office Abbreviation, AL-WY 11-12 2 numeric Age; '0' to '85' (85 includes 85+) 14-20 7 numeric Hispanic origin male population 22-28 7 numeric Hispanic origin female population PROJECTION MODEL DEFINITIONS Series A (Preferred Series) the first five projection years use the time series projections exclusively, over the next ten years the projections are interpolated toward the mean of the series, and the last 15 years use the mean exclusively; Series B (Economic Model) division-to-division migration is regressed against the changes in employment in the origin, the destination, and the rest of the nation- the regressions are performed separately for each origin with indicator variables for the destination, the projected division-to division flows are allocated to the State-to-State flows based on the State-to-State flows' historic share of the division-to-division flow; Series C (Floating Mean Model) for the first ten projection years the n-th projection is the mean of the n most recent observations, after ten years the projection is the mean of the most recent ten years; Series D (Zero Internal Migration Assumption) assumes no internal migrationADJUSTMENT TO NATIONAL PROJECTIONS The final step in the projection model involves adjusting the sum of the State populations by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin to the middle series of the national population projections. Although the State pro- jections system was consistent with the projected national trends in fertility and mortality, the State population projections model incor- porates State differentials in mortality and fertility. Thus, the total number of births and deaths calculated in the State projections system does not necessarily equal the numbers developed in the national pro- jections system. The State populations by age, sex, race/ethnic group in each projection series were adjusted to be consistent with the middle series national projections of the resident population which were census- level projections using the inflation-deflation procedure. The difference between the figures represents the adjustment necessary to bring the sum of the States into agreement with the projected U.S. total and is generally small.
