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Population Changes -
National Birth, Death, Migration Projections:
United States by Year, Age, Gender, and Ethnicity
for the years 2014 - 2060

Data Summary for National Population Projections 2014-2060

Summary:    The U.S. Census Bureau releases interim population projections of births, deaths and migration of residents of the United States based on Census 2010 counts. The projections are produced with the general assumption that recent national trends in fertility, mortality, domestic migration, and international migration will continue.

Source:    U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projections Program. National population projections for years 2014-2060, released on the internet December 10, 2014 at http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2014.html. See Data Source Information for more details.

In WONDER:    You can produce tables, maps, charts, and data extracts. Request national projections of births, deaths and migration for the years 2014-2030. You can limit and index your data by any and all of these variables:
  1. Age - single year-of-age cohorts: < 1 year to 100 or more years of age; or 5-year age groups;
  2. Gender - Female, Male;
  3. Ethnicity - Hispanic, Not Hispanic;
  4. Year - 2014-2060.
Note: see also Data Request for Population Changes by Race 2014-2060.

Please refer to the following topics:


Data Request for Population Changes by Ethnicity 2014-2060

Output:    You can produce tables, maps, charts, and data extracts, for national projections of births, deaths and migration.

Variables:   
  1. Age - single year-of-age cohorts: < 1 year to 100 or more years of age, or 5-year age groups;
  2. Gender - Female, Male;
  3. Ethnicity - Hispanic, Not Hispanic;
  4. Year - 2014-2060.
How?    The Request screen has sections to guide you through the making a data request as step-by-step process. However, to get your first taste of how the system works, you might want to simply press any Send button, and execute the default data request. The data results for your query appear on the Table screen. After you get your data results, try the Chart and Map screens. Or export your data to a file (tab-delimited line listing) for download to your computer.

For more information, see the following:

Quick Start Guide;
Step 1, Organize table layout;
Step 2, Select demographics;
Step 3, Other Options.

'By-Variables:'    Select variables that serve as keys (indexes) for organizing your data. See How do I organize my data? for more information.
Note:   To map your data, you must select at least one geographical location as a "By-Variable" for grouping your data, such as State.
Help:    Click on any button labeled "Help", located to the right hand side of the screen at the top of each section. Each Control's label, such as the "Location" label next to the Location entry box, is linked to the on-line help for that item.
Send:    Sends your data request to be processed on the CDC WONDER databases. The Send buttons are located on the bottom of the Request page, and also in the upper right corner of each section, for easy access.



Step 1. Organize table layout:
Select up to variables that serve as keys for grouping your data. For example, you could select to group (summarize, stratify, index) your data by Year, Gender and Age.
How?    See How do I organize my data? for more information.

Hints:   

  1. To make a map, you must request data with a geographic location variable, such as State, as a "By-Variable." Then click the Map tab.
  2. You cannot make charts when your data has more than two By-Variables.
Title:  Enter any desired description to display as a title with your results.

Note:    The Age category values selected affect which options are valid as "By-Variables." You can pick either Age" (single-year-of-age) or 5-year "Age Groups" values for age. Be sure that the list you want is selected, see How do I change a..."Radio Button?" to pick your preferred list of age values.
  • You can only group data by Age Groups when data is requested for 5-year Age Groups.
  • You can only group data by "Age" values when data is requested for single-year ages.


Step 2. Select demographics:

Limit the population to specific demographic and year selections here. Alternately, you can leave the settings at the default values (all persons and all years) and choose to organize or group the data results by Age or Year to show these stratifications.


Year

Pick any combination of years desired. National population projections range from year 2014 to year 2060.

Age Categories

Select either 5-year Age Groups or single-year-of-age cohorts through 100 years of age, and 100+ years. Be sure the button for the list you want to use is checked when selecting age values.
How?   See How do I select items from the list box? and also see How do I change a "Check Box?" A "Radio Button?" to pick your preferred list of age values.

Age Groups

The Age Groups field contains values for infants and young children ages 0-4 years, age in 5-year groupings from 5 years through 84 years, and age 85 years and older. Select any combination of values.

How?  

Note:   When the data results are exported to a file, the Age Group Code is shown in a column, as well as the label in another column.



"Age" or Single-Year-of-Age Cohorts

This field contains age groups in single-year increments from under 1 year of age through 100 years of age, and a group of 100 years old and over. Select any combination of values.
How?   See How do I select items from the list box?. Be sure the button for the list you want to use is checked when selecting age values. See How do I change a "Check Box?" A "Radio Button?" to pick your preferred list of age values.

Note:   The code values displayed in data export files correspond to the ages. For example, the code value "0" (zero) is the age < 1 year, the code value "1" is 1 year of age, through the code value "84" for 84 years of age, and the code value "100+" for 100 years of age and over.


Gender

Select Male, Female or All values.

Note:    Codes for gender are PHIN standards compliant. "M" for Male and "F" for Female.


Ethnicity

Select All Ethnicities, Hispanic or Not Hispanic.

Note:    Codes for Hispanic ethnicity are PHIN standards compliant.


Code Label
2135-2 Hispanic
2186-5 Not Hispanic




Step 3. Other options:
Export Results   If checked, then query results are exported to a local file. More information on how to import this file into other applications can be found here.
How?   See Check Box.
Show Totals   If checked, then totals and sub-totals display in the results table.
How?   See Check Box.
Show Zero Values   If checked, then rows containing zero counts display in the results table. If unchecked, then zero count rows are suppressed.
How?   See Check Box.
Precision   Precision is not available for this dataset because population counts are whole numbers.
Data Access Timeout   This value specifies the maximum time to wait for the data access for a query to complete. If the data access takes too long to complete, a message will be displayed and you can increase the timeout or simplify your request. If you can't complete a request using the maximum timeout, contact user support and we will try to run a custom data request for you.

Data Source Information

To learn more about the methods and source of these data please refer to:


Additional Information

Suggested Citation Population Changes - National Birth, Death, Migration Projections: United States by Year, Age, Gender, and Ethnicity for years 2014-2060, released by the U.S. Census Bureau on December 10, 2014, on CDC WONDER Online Database, 2015.

Each original series of estimates has a unique suggested citation. Please refer to Data Source Information to reference the original technical reference notes and citation for a specific series. See also 2014 National Population Projections at the U.S. Census Bureau web site.

Contact The Census Bureau welcomes comments and questions at http://www.census.gov/population/projections/contact/.
Notes:
  • What are population projections?
    Population projections are estimates of the population for future dates. They are typically based on an estimated population consistent with the most recent decennial census and are produced using the cohort-component method. Projections illustrate possible courses of population change based on assumptions about future births, deaths, net international migration, and domestic migration. In some cases, several series of projections are produced based on alternative assumptions for future fertility, life expectancy, net international migration, and (for state-level projections) state-to-state or domestic migration.
  • How are population estimates different from projections?
    While projections and estimates may appear similar, there are some distinct differences between the two measures. Estimates are for the past and present, while projections are based on assumptions about future demographic trends. Estimates generally use existing data collected from various sources, while projections make assumptions about what demographic trends will be in the future. Data users may find both an estimate and a projection available for the same date (e.g., July 2011), which may not agree. In such cases, estimates are the preferred data, unless the user's objective is to compare the number with others in the projected series.
  • About projections for previous years: Periodically, a series of population projections is produced, and the population projections produced in the preceding years are superseded by the most recent population projections for the same years. For example, the population projections for the years 2012- 2060 released December 12, 2012, are replaced by the series of population estimates available for the years 2014-2060 released December 10, 2014. For the preceding series of national population projections, see National Population Projections at www.census.gov.




This page last reviewed: Tuesday, January 05, 2016
This information is provided as technical reference material. Please contact us at cwus@cdc.gov to request a simple text version of this document.
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