Scientific Data DocumentationIntercensal Population Estimates, NCHS 1981-1989
Annoucement: January/February 1993 Abstract Methodology Record LayoutANNOUNCEMENT: INTERCENSAL USAGE NOTES/NEWS Source: APDU Newsletter Volume 17, No. 1 January/February 1993 Director Announces No Adjustment ofIntercensal Estimates Barbara Bryant, Director of the Bureau of the Census, announced on December 29 that the intercensal population estimates produced annually by the Bureau will not be adjusted to correct for the estimated 1.6% national net undercount in the 1990 census. This was one of the last acts of Bryant, who left her position on January 20,1993. Harry Scarr, Deputy Director, is now the senior official at the Census Bureau. "This decision was difficult to make," Bryant said in her notice to the Federal Renter. "It is the consensus of a committee of senior Census Bureau statisticians and demographers that adjustment would improve the accuracy of the 1990 census count at the national level, particularly for racial/ethnic and owner/renter groups. Adjustment would also more accurately depict most states' shares of the national population. The accuracy of the 1990 census is important to the intercensal adjustment issue because the 1990 figure is the startmg point for our yearly population estimates. However, because the 1990 total undercount is so small (less than 2 percent), it is impossible to accurately adjust for the 44,055 substate areas for which population estimates are produced." Bryant noted that sponsors of federal surveys conducted by the Census Bureau will be offered the option of calibrating their surveys to adjusted or unadjusted population estimates beginnmg in 1993. These would be such surveys as the Current Population Survey, the National Health Interview Survey, and the National Crime Victimization Survey. These national surveys are calibrated at large, aggregate levels where Census Bureau research shows adjusted estimates are on average more accurate. Bryant also pointed out that unadjusted estimates remain the official population totals. Federal law requires that the Census Bureau issue official totals for use in any federal program which allocates its funding based upon population estimates. The Census Bureau provides official population estimates to states and counties in every year between decenrialcensuses and to subcounty areas every other year. Estimates of US population as of July 1, 1992, were released on January 1,1993. * Reprinted with permission of the Association of Public Data Users (APDU) For membership information contact: Susan Anderson (609) 258-6025 or (609) 258-6052ABSTRACT These data are estimates of the population of the 3,136 counties in the United States as defined in 1980, by 5-year age groups (age 0 to 4, 5 to 9, ...85 and over), sex (male, female), and modified race (White, Black, other races) for each year, July 1, 1981 through July 1, 1989. The estimates included in this release are developed by interpolating between census files for April 1, 1980 and 1990. The interpolations were adjusted to be consistent with pre- liminary intercensal estimates of the total population of the United States, states, and counties. The age and race data in the 1980 and 1990 Census data files which were used as anchor points in this methodology were modified to be consistent with other data sets.METHODOLOGY This section describes briefly the methodology used to derive the attached preliminary intercensal estimates of the resident population of States, divisions, and regions for July 1, 1981 to 1989. The intercensals are consistent with the 1980 census counts as published in the U.S. Census Summary, PC80-1-B1 and the 1990 census count was enumerated. The latest set of 1981-90 (1980-based) State estimates were used in the intercensal formula (1). The sum of the intercensal state estimates for each year was adjusted to be consistent with independent national estimates of the intercensal population estimates. This procedure was also used in developing the annual intercensal population estimates for the United States (2). The user should note the intercensal estimates presented are preliminary for the following reasons. First, the April 1, 1990, State and National post- censal estimates used to compute the intercensal estimates use provisional input data that will be revised. Secondly, both the State and National postcensal estimates use methodologies that are subject to change once an evaluation of the postcensal population estimates is completed. At least one other series of annual State and intercensal estimates of the population is planned for release in the next two years. (1) The methodology for 1980-based estimates is described in Current Population Reports, Series P-25 Nos. 957 and 998. (2) The final report from the Bureau of the Census's Intercensal Working Group may be obtained by calling (301) 763-5072.RECORD LAYOUT Six Records (by Race/Sex) per county, 3136 counties (1980 Geography) Year = July 1, 1981, ... July 1, 1989 Record Contents Columns Year (2 digits, 81, ...89) 1-2 FIPS (State/County) 3-7 Race/Sex (1=white male, 2=white female, 3=black male, 4=black female, 5=other male, 6=other female) 8 Blank 9 Age 0-4 10-17 5-9 18-25 10-14 26-33 15-19 34-41 20-24 42-49 25-29 50-57 30-34 58-65 35-39 66-73 40-44 74-81 45-49 82-89 50-54 90-97 55-59 98-105 60-64 106-113 65-69 114-121 70-74 122-129 75-79 130-137 80-84 138-145 85+ 146-153
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