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Scientific Data Documentation
Population Projections for States, 1993-2020
*SEE CENSUS PROJECTIONS 1993-2020 DATASET NAMES FOR DSN's



ABSTRACT

 Population Projections for States by Age, Sex, Race,and Hispanic Origin:  
 1993 to 2020


  This report includes an extensive analysis of the results of these
  projections as well as detailed information on the methodology and
  assumptions used to produce a preferred and three alternative proj-
  ection scenarios.  To order this publication, contact the Statistical
  Information Staff at 301/763-5002.  Questions concerning the methodology,
  analysis of the data, or file layout should be addressed to Paul Campbell,
  Population Projections Branch at 301/763-1902.

DESCRIPTION

  The tape contains the detailed set of population projection results for
  every State.  There are 50 States and the District of Columbia.
  The data tape consists of five files.There is one file for each of the
  4 projection series (Series A, B, C, and D) and one file for the Hispanic
  origin population. 
 
  For July 1 of each year, 1993 to 2020, separate files are presented for
  each of the four series of State projections classified by age, sex, and
  race. Only Series A are available for the Hispanic origin population.
  These projections are based on July 1, 1990, 1991, and 1992 State estimates,
  which are included. Projections are provided for males and females, 86 age 
  categories (annually for individual ages 0 to 84, and 85 and over), four
  race categories (White; Black; American Indian; Eskimo, and Aleut; and 
  Asian and Pacific Islander). The totals for the States can be obtained by
  combined the four race groups. Hispanic origin may be any race.


               Series A - Preferred Series
               Series B - Economic Model
               Series C - Floating Mean Model
               Series D - Zero Internal Migration Assumption
               Series H - Hispanic Origin

RECORD LAYOUT

  Location     Length       Type        Data
  --------     ------       ----        ----
  1              1          character   Series; 'A', 'B', 'C', or 'D'
  3-6            4          numeric     Year; '1990' to '2020'
  8-9            2          character   State Post Office Abbreviation, AL-WY
  11-12          2          numeric     Age; '0' to '85' (85 includes 85+)
  14-20          7          numeric     White male population
  22-28          7          numeric     White female population
  30-36          7          numeric     Black male population
  38-44          7          numeric     Black female population
  46-52          7          numeric     American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut
                                         male population
  54-60          7          numeric     American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut
                                         female population
  62-68          7          numeric     Asian and Pacific Islander male 
                                         population
  70-76          7          numeric     Asian and Pacific Islander female
                                         population

      Series H Record Layout

  Location     Length      Type        Data
  --------     ------      ----        ----
  1              1         character   identifier; 'H'
  3-6            4         numeric     Year; '1990' to '2020'
  8-9            2         character   State Post Office Abbreviation, AL-WY
  11-12          2         numeric     Age; '0' to '85' (85 includes 85+)
  14-20          7         numeric     Hispanic origin male population
  22-28          7         numeric     Hispanic origin female population


PROJECTION MODEL DEFINITIONS

  Series A (Preferred Series)
     the first five projection years use the time series projections
     exclusively, over the next ten years the projections are interpolated
     toward the mean of the series, and the last 15 years use the mean
     exclusively;

  Series B (Economic Model)
     division-to-division migration is regressed against the changes in 
     employment in the origin, the destination, and the rest of the nation-
     the regressions are performed separately for each origin with indicator
     variables for the destination, the projected division-to division flows
     are allocated to the State-to-State flows based on the State-to-State
     flows' historic share of the division-to-division flow;

  Series C (Floating Mean Model)
     for the first ten projection years the n-th projection is the mean
     of the n most recent observations, after ten years the projection is
     the mean of the most recent ten years;

  Series D (Zero Internal Migration Assumption)
     assumes no internal migration
ADJUSTMENT TO NATIONAL PROJECTIONS

  The final step in the projection model involves adjusting the sum of the
  State populations by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin to the middle
  series of the national population projections.  Although the State pro-
  jections system was consistent with the projected national trends in 
  fertility and mortality, the State population projections model incor-
  porates State differentials in mortality and fertility.  Thus, the total
  number of births and deaths calculated in the State projections system
  does not necessarily equal the numbers developed in the national pro-
  jections system.  The State populations by age, sex, race/ethnic group
  in each projection series were adjusted to be consistent with the middle
  series national projections of the resident population which were census-
  level projections using the inflation-deflation procedure.  The difference
  between the figures represents the adjustment necessary to bring the sum
  of the States into agreement with the projected U.S. total and is generally
  small.
 



This page last reviewed: Thursday, January 28, 2016
This information is provided as technical reference material. Please contact us at cwus@cdc.gov to request a simple text version of this document.
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