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Scientific Data Documentation
Population Projections Of The US, 1992-2050
*SEE CENSUS PROJECTIONS 1992-2050 DATASET NAMES FOR DSN.



GENERAL INFORMATION

 Population Projections of the United States, by Age, Sex. Race, and Hispanic
 Origin.: 1992 to 2050 {machine readable data File} / prepared by the Bureau
 of the Census, Population Division, 1992.

 Users who purchase these diskettes should also purchase the publication,
 "Population Projections of the United States, by Age, Sex, Race, and
 Hispanic Origin: 1992 to 2050."  (Current Population Reports P251092) This
 report includes an analysis of the results of these projections as well as
 detailed information on the assumptions and methodology used in generating
 the series. To order this publication, contact the Statistical Information
 Staff at 301/763-5002. Questions concerning the methodology, analysis of the
 data, or file layout should be addressed to Jennifer Day, Population
 Projections Branch at 301/763-1902.
SUBJECT-MATTER DESCRIPTION

 Middle series projections of the resident population of the United States by
 age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, from 1992 to 2050.

 The data are consist of eight files: six include data on the projected
 population, one file shows the projected components of change, and one file
 consists of the Armed Forces overseas population.

 For July 1 of each year, 1992 to 2050, the population file presents the
 middle series of projections classified by age, sex, race, and Hispanic
 origin. These projections are based on July 1, 1991 estimates, consistent
 with the 1990 census, as enumerated and projected forward using the
 inflation-deflation variant of the cohort-component method.  Projections are
 provided for 102 age categories (yearly total, individual years 0 to 99, 100
 and over), four race categories White; Black; American Indian, Eskimo, and
 Aleut; and Asian and Pacific Islander), Hispanic origin, and the four races
 without the Hispanic origin population (non-Hispanic race groups).

 The component file presents data 1992 through 2050.  This file includes the
 annual July 1 and January 1 populations in addition to the annual number and
 rates of birth. death, net immigration, natural increase, and net change.
UNIVERSE DESCRIPTION
 Resident Population of the United States
TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION

 File Type
  ASCII

 File Size
  File name    Number of bytes      Records       Columns
  ---- ----    ------ -- -----      -------       -------
  P1992_00          203,796             916           220
  P2001_10          226,440            1020           220
  P2011_20          226,440            1020           220
  P2021_30          226.440            1020           220
  P2031_40          226,440            1020           220
  12041_50          226,440            1020           220
  COMPONENT          61,362             590            91
  AFO                 10536              49           213

 Sort Sequence
  Series Number by Year by Age.
EXPLANATION OF DATA FIELDS

 Series:     All data on the diskettes are based on the middle series.
             The letter "A" represents the middle series data.

 Year:       Annually from 1992 to 2050.  Population data are as of July 1.
             Birth, death, net immigration, natural increase, and net
             change are for the calendar year.

 Age group:  The total population is code 999 which is the first record for
             each year. This is followed by 0 to 99 which are individual
             ages and 100 which is the centenarian population.

 Race and
 Hispanic
 origin:     The data are shown for the Total; White; Black; American Indian,
             Eskimo, and Aleut; and Asian and Pacific Islander populations.
             Data are also shown for the Hispanic origin population, and the
             non-Hispanic White; non-Hispanic Black; non-Hispanic American
             Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut; and non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific
             Islander populations.

             Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race.

    In the components of change File, each group is represented by a letter:

    A    = Total population
    B    = White population
    C    = Black population
    D    = American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population
    E    = Asian and Pacific Islander population
    F    = Hispanic population
    G    = non-Hispanic white
    H    = non-Hispanic Black
    I    = non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population
    J    = non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander population
RECORD LAYOUT

 Components of Change file:  COMPONEN
 Location   Length      Type     Data
      --------   ------      ----     ----
 2            1                  Series letter
 3            1                  Race and Hispanic origin
 4-7          4      Numeric     Year
 8-17        10      Numeric     July 1 population
 18-22        5      Numeric     Rate of Net Change per 1,000 mid-year pop.
 23-27        5      Numeric     Rate of National Increase per 1,000
 28-32        5      Numeric     Rate of Birth per 1,000 mid-year pop.
 33-37        5      Numeric     Rate of Deaths per 1,000 mid-year pop.
 38-42        5      Numeric     Rate of Net Immigration per 1,000 mid-yr. pop.
 43-52       10      Numeric     January 1 population
 S~          10      Numeric     Net Change
 63-72       10      Numeric     Natural Increase
 73-82       10      Numeric     Births
 83-92       10      Numeric     Deaths
 93-102      10      Numeric     Net Immigration

 Population Files
 File Name   File Description
      ---- ----   ---- -----------
 P1992_00    US resident population projections  1992 to 2000 (middle series)
 P2001_10    US resident population projections  2001 to 2010 (middle series)
 P2011_20    US resident population projections  2011 to 2020 (middle series)
 P2021_30    US resident population projections  2021 to 2030 (middle series)
 P2031_40    US resident population projections  2031 to 2040 (middle series)
 P2041_50    US resident population projections  2011 to 2050 (middle series)

 Location  Length  Type       Data
 --------  ------  ----       ----
 2           1     Character  Series
 3-6         4     Numeric    Year
 7-10        3     Numeric    Age
 11-20      10     Numeric    Total population
 21-30      10     Numeric    Total male population
 31~0       10     Numeric    Total female population
 41-50      10     Numeric    White male population
 51-60      10     Numeric    White female population
 61-70      10     Numeric    Black male population
 71-80      10     Numeric    Black female population
 81-90      10     Numeric    American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut male
 91-100     10     Numeric    American Indian, Eskimo. and Aleut female
 101-110    10     Numeric    Asian and Pacific Islander male population
 111-120    10     Numeric    Asian and Pacific Islander female population
 121-130    10     Numeric    Hispanic male population
 131-140    10     Numeric    Hispanic female population
 141-150    10     Numeric    White non-Hispanic male population
 151-160    10     Numeric    White non-Hispanic female population
 161-170    10     Numeric    Black non-Hispanic male population
 171-180    10     Numeric    Black non-Hispanic female population
 181-190    10     Numeric    Amer Indian,Eskimo,& Aleut non-Hisp male pop.
 191-200    10     Numeric    Amer Indian,Eskimo,& Aleut non-Hisp female pop.
 201-210    10     Numeric    Asian & Pac Islander non-Hisp male population
 211-220    10     Numeric    Asian & Pac Islander non-Hisp female population

 Armed Forces Overseas file: AFO

 The Armed Forces overseas file contains the unrounded population estimates of
 Armed Forces overseas as of July 1,1991. Data are shown for total population
 and ages 17 through 64. This population is assumed to remain constant through
 out the entire projection period (1992-2050). The projected population
 figures for the United States are for resident population only. To calculate
 the Total Population including Armed Forces overseas, the population in this
 file needs to be added to each projection year. Past population projections
 completed by the Bureau of the Census presented the Total Population
 including Armed Forces overseas.

  Location  Length  Type       Data
  --------  ------  ----       ----
  1-3        3      Numeric    Age
  4-10       7      Numeric    Total population
  11-17      7      Numeric    Total male population
  18-24      7      Numeric    Total female population
  25-31      7      Numeric    White total population
  32-38      7      Numeric    White male population
  39-45      7      Numeric    White female population
  46-52      7      Numeric    Black total population
  53-59      7      Numeric    Black male population
  60-66      7      Numeric    Black female population
  67-73      7      Numeric    American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut total pop.
  74-80      7      Numeric    American Indian, Eskimo. and Aleut male pop.
  81-87      7      Numeric    American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut female pop.
  88-94      7      Numeric    Asian and Pacific Islander total population
  95-101     7      Numeric    Asian and Pacific Islander male population
  102-108    7      Numeric    Asian and Pacific Islander female population
  109-115    7      Numeric    Hispanic total population
  116-122    7      Numeric    Hispanic male population
  123-129    7      Numeric    Hispanic female population
  130-136    7      Numeric    White non-Hispanic total population
  137-143    7      Numeric    White non-Hispanic male population
  144-150    7      Numeric    White non-Hispanic female population
  151-157    7      Numeric    Black non-Hispanic total population
  158-164    7      Numeric    Black non-Hispanic male population
  165-171    7      Numeric    Black non-Hispanic female population
  172-178    7      Numeric    Amer Indian,Eskimo,& Aleut non-Hisp total pop.
  179-185    7      Numeric    Amer Indian,Eskimo,& Aleut non-Hisp male pop.
  186-192    7      Numeric    Amer Indian,Eskimo,& Aleut non-Hisp female pop.
  193-199    7      Numeric    Asian and Pacific non-Hisp total population
  200-206    7      Numeric    Asian and Pacific non-Hisp male population
  207-213    7      Numeric    Asian and Pacific non-Hisp female population
DETAILED METHODOLOGY

 General Information
 NOTE: These projections are consistent with the 1990 census as enumerated.

 NOTE: This is the first projections report which presents data for four race
       groups (White; Black; American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut; and Asian and
       Pacific Islander) and the Hispanic origin population.  The race groups
       also are separated into their Hispanic and Non-Hispanic components.

 NOTE: Many of the trends described here are substantially different from
       those shown in the previous projections (Current Population Reports,
       Nos. 995 and 1018). These differences are primarily due to the
       changeover to the 1990 census base and three significant changes in our
       assumptions:  1) Future fertility is assumed to remain near current
       levels; 2) Future immigration is assumed to remain near current levels;
       and 3) Fertility and mortality differentials by race/ethnic groups are
       assumed to continue their current trends. The future course of
       population change could be substantially different -- depending on the
       actual trends in births, deaths, and net migration.

        The projections shown here supersede the information contained in
        Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1018 and Series P-25,
        No 995. The methodology used to generate the projections in this
        report is similar to that used for the earlier reports. However, the
        base population data and several assumptions have changed.

 The Cohort-Component Framework

 Six sets of data are required to generate these population projections
 using the cohort-component model. These are a base-year population, projected
 survival rates, future net immigration statistics, 1990 inflation/deflation
 rates, and an estimated Armed Forces overseas population. The most difficult
 aspect of producing these population projections involves deriving the base-
 year starting points and rates. Each data set is organized into 16 different
 race/ethnic/sex matrices with a cell for each year of age 0 to 100 and over.
 The sixteen matrices are White; Black; American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut;
 Asian and Pacific Islander - by Hispanic origin (Hispanic and Not Hispanic)
 and by sex. The sum of all the cells in all 16 matrices equals the total
 population.

 Starting with a July 1, 1991 modified population estimate based on the
 1990 census, each cell is inflated by Demographic Analysis to correct for
 persons not included in the population count in 1990.  Then each age/race/
 ethnic/sex cell is survived forward to July 1, 1992 by applying the
 appropriate survival rate.
 
 The population under 1 is created by first calculating the population
 of women exposed to the risk of child bearing. Generally this involves
 averaging the July 1,1991 and July 1,1992 inflated female population, of
 each race/ethnic group by single years of age between the ages 14 through 49.
 Then, the corresponding age/race/ethnic specific fertility rate is applied
 to this averaged female population to produce, after aggregation, the total
 number of births by race/ethnicity for that fiscal year. The assumed sex
 ratio for each group is used to divide the births into males and females.
 Finally, the number of births by sex and race are survived forward to July 1,
 1992.
 
 After the births are calculated, net immigration by age/sex/race/
 ethnicity are added. Then the movement of the population of Armed Forces
 overseas are applied to the population by detailed group. Next, the
 population is deflated to be consistent with the 1990 census count. A small
 pro rata adjustment is made to the deflated age estimates in each sex/race/
 ethnic group to bring them in exact agreement with an independent estimate
 of the total population of each group.
 
 Finally, the 16 groups are summed, creating the groups most frequently
 requested, and are displayed in this report. This includes adding
 the Hispanic and Not Hispanic groups for each race to make a total
 population by age/sex for each race, and adding the 8 Hispanic origin
 matrices to get the total age/sex Hispanic origin population. As these groups
 are added, new total rates are derived for these new groups. The same set of
 procedures when applied to the July 1,1992 population would generate the July
 1, 1993 population. This process is continued until 2050.

 The Base Population

 The beginning population of these projections is the July 1, 1991
 estimate. Because this estimate reflects births by race of child, a slight
 re-organization of the zero and one-year-old populations by race was made to
 account for the new mother rule of race designation of births used in these
 projections. These estimates are consistent with the 1990 census count, but
 cannot be directly compared to the published results by age and race because
 modifications were made to the data to correctly place each in an appropriate
 age and race category. This was done to adjust for age misreporting and the
 reporting of an unspecified race in the 1990 census.

 Fertility

 Assumptions

 As in the past, three different future fertility levels are used. These are
 derived from analysis of natality statistics for five groups of women by race
 group and origin. Assuming that the pattern of fertility would be the same
 for all Hispanic women, across all races, we derived levels for Hispanic-
 origin women and the remaining four non-Hispanic race groups: non-Hispanic
 White; non-Hispanic Black; non-Hispanic American Indian; and non-Hispanic
 Asian. The levels for each total race group would then be the combination of
 the Hispanic and non-Hispanic proportions of that race group. As these
 proportions change, so would the combined fertility levels. In 1989, NCHS
 changed their method of reporting race of births to reflect the race of the
 mother. The projected fertility levels and rates in this report use this new
 rule.
 
 Several fertility assumptions in this report are founded on past
 trends. First, this projection will not assume race/ethnic fertility
 convergence. Historical data shows that the major differences between White
 and Black fertility is timing, that is, Blacks tend to have their children
 at earlier ages than Whites. After age 25, however, White and Black fertility
 has been about the same. Yet, there is no compelling evidence of overall
 convergence of Black-White or any race-ethnic fertility. Second, in the last
 decade, many women delayed the start of childbearing until their late 20s or
 30s. This recent shift to a new age pattern of childbearing is assumed to
 remain constant. Third, since the end of the Baby Boom, completed cohort
 fertility has remained about the same. Therefore, there appears to be no
 reason to assume a change from the fertility levels for Whites, Blacks, and
 American Indians.
 
 The fertility levels in the middle series are based on the premise
 that foreign-born women may have higher fertility than native-born women.
 Thus, Hispanic and Asian fertility are assumed to decrease after 2000 as the
 share of their fertility contributed by the foreign born will decrease. The
 non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic American Indian
 fertility would remain constant throughout the projected period.
 
 In the low series, the fertility rates is assumed to fall for all
 races and Hispanic origin, decreasing 10 percent for non-Hispanic White and
 20 percent for the other four groups by the year 2010. The reverse is assumed
 for the high series. The high series would have an increase in rates, up 20
 percent for non-Hispanic Whites, and 10 percent for the other four groups by
 2010.

 Creation of 1990 Central Birth Rate

 The birth rates for these projections are based on 1990 fertility rates. The
 beginning rates were created using NCHS natality data and 1990 census
 population figures. Because only provisional data were available for 1990,
 1989 final detailed data were controlled by the provisional 1990 number of
 births (corrected for under registration). Births for each race group --White,
 Black, Asian, and American Indian -- were divided by a 1989 (1990 census
 based) population. Because the base population for these projections was a
 1990 census base, the base rates needed to be consistent with this new
 population count and distribution. Using a time series model, the White 1990
 birth rates were forecast, adjusted to the provisional 1990 birth totals.
 Using a ratio to the White 1989 rate, the birth rates were derived for the
 other races - Black, American Indian, and Asian.
 
 Birth rates for the Hispanic origin population are based on NCHS
 birth data. In 1989, these data included 47 states and the District of
 Columbia, covering about 99.2 percent of the total US. Hispanic population
 (based on 1990 census figures). The Hispanic rates were held constant at 1989
 levels. Non-Hispanic rates were created by extracting the Hispanic data out
 of each race for both population and births. Finally, each group's total
 fertility rate was rounded down slightly.

 Life Expectancy

 Assumptions

 As in the last Census projections, three basic city assumptions are used.
 The middle life expectancy assumptions reflects a slow improvement in life
 expectancy.  The last 10-year trend of mortality improvement, from 1980 to
 1990, is replicated, and some additional impact of AIDS is included .The
 incidence of AIDS is projected to increase linearly until the turn of the
 century. After 2000, mortality from AIDS will slowly decrease, returning to
 1990 level of AIDS morality by 2050. The low life-expectancy series assumes
 that current mortality rates will continue, with an increase over the next
 15 years in deaths due to AIDS. This uses a 1990 base lifetable with AIDS
 projected to increase linearly up to the year 2005, then remain constant. The
 high life-expectancy assumption, or rapid improvement series, replicates the
 pattern of mortality, between 1970 to 1980, thus ignoring the impact of AIDS.

 Lifetables

 The 1990 lifetable was based on NCHS death data (final 1989 and sample 1990)
 for age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. Race detail provided deaths only for
 the White, Black, and "Other" populations. To obtain detailed deaths for the
 American Indian and the Asian populations, the "Other" group's deaths were
 split by subtracting death data provided by the Indian Health Service. The
 remaining deaths were considered to be Asian. Although this technique
 provided relatively adequate estimates of deaths for the Asian and American
 Indian races, the quality of mortality estimates for these two groups still
 remains questionable. The deaths for each race then were divided by their
 appropriate population estimate for July 1,1990, creating death rates by
 five-year age groups, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. For the oldest age
 groups, where frequently age specific death data is often misreported, the
 rates were corrected using data from the Social Security Administration. The
 total death rates were then adjusted to agree with the estimated 2,162,000
 deaths in 1990.
 
 Non-Hispanic death rates by race were computed by extracting the
 Hispanic deaths from the total deaths for each race. By applying the
 proportional race distribution of the Hispanic origin population to the total
 number of Hispanic deaths, the Hispanic deaths by race were derived. Thus,
 the remainder of deaths in each race were non-Hispanic.
 
 The death rates used for every projected lifetable was based on the
 assumed change from the death rates used in the 1990 lifetable. In each
 assumption, sex and race differentials were not assumed to converge, but were
 determined by the rate of change applied to each individual group. The rates
 of change were computed based on adjusted level death rates for 1970, 1980,
 and 1990. In the middle series, lifetables were computed for 2000 -- a turning
 point of the series, and 2050 -- the end point. For the alternative series, a
 2005 lifetable was created for the low life-expectancy assumption, holding
 the rest of the projected period constant at 2005 levels (i.e., AIDS gets no
 worse or better), and for the high life expectancy series a 2050 lifetable
 was made.  Survival rates were extrapolated for each year between these
 points.

 Net Immigration

 The net immigration component used in these projections is composed of
 five types of migration, four which increase the population (immigration)
 and one that decreased the population (emigration). In the low, middle, and
 high net immigration, the same age/sex/race/ethnic ratio is used throughout,
 based on a July 1, 1991 estimate of each migration type, but raked to the
 alternative levels for each type.
 
 The levels of legal and refugee immigration are heavily influenced by
 Federal legislation and the political environment. Therefore, the middle
 assumption for this type of immigration is based on current levels and
 interpretation of current laws. The low alternative represents the legal and
 refugee immigration experience during the 1980s, where as the high assumption
 reflects the possibility of piercing the legal cap on this type of
 immigration through modifications to the current law. Undocumented
 immigration is difficult to measure. Currently, the Census Bureau's best
 estimate adds about 200,000 net undocumented immigration the US. each year.
 Yet, the wide range between the low and high alternatives reflects some of
 the uncertainty of the actual number. Puerto Rican and civilian citizen
 immigration levels exhibit the 1991 estimate of these components in the
 middle series, equally bounded by the low and high alternatives. Emigration,
 similar to the undocumented migration, contains some unknown qualities.
 Similar to previous Census Bureau projections, emigration is considered a
 constant, instead of a proportion of the total of all in-migration.  However,
 unlike other projections, the low series does not show a lower number for
 emigration; in fact, it reflects a greater population exiting. Logically, if
 conditions exist for low in-migration (for example, an economic downturn),
 the same conditions or reasons would also drive more people out of the
 country. The reverse is assumed for the high series.
RACE AND ETHNIC DEFINITIONS AND CONCEPTS

 General Information

 The race classification used by the Census Bureau generally adheres
 to the guidelines the Federal Statistical Directive No. 15, issued by the
 Office of Management and Budget, which provides standards on race and
 Hispanic origin categories for statistical reporting to be used by all
 Federal agencies. The race and Hispanic origin categories are defined as the
 following:

 American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut
  A person having origins in any of the original peoples of North America, who
  maintains cultural identification through tribal affiliation or community
  recognition.

 Asian and Pacific Islander
  A person having origins in any of the original peoples in the Far East,
  Southeast Asian, the Indian subcontinent, or the Pacific Islands. This area
  includes, for example, China, India, Japan, Korea, the Philippine Islands,
  and Samoa.

 Black
  A person having origins in any of the black racial groups of Africa.

 Hispanic
  A person of Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, Central or South American or other
  Spanish culture or origin, regardless of race.

 White
  A person having origins in any of the original peoples of Europe, North
  Africa, or the Middle East.




This page last reviewed: Thursday, January 28, 2016
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